Main
Featherweight
Hatsu Hioki vs Charles Oliveira
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt
·Spark Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Hatsu Hioki
Charles Oliveira
32%
68%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
31
Age
Δ 6y
25
30-10-2
Career record
Δ 6 pp
38-11
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Hioki: 11 sig / 3 TD ·
Oliveira: 24 sig / 3 TD
Hatsu Hioki
Charles Oliveira
26
Sig strikes landed
28
54
Sig strikes attempted
66
49
Total strikes landed
46
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.0
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
192s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
47%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Hatsu Hioki
30-10-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
W1
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
10 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—