Prelims1
Bantamweight
Urijah Faber vs Alex Caceres
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Urijah Faber
Alex Caceres
80%
20%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
35
Age
Δ 9y
26
35-12
Career record
Δ 15 pp
22-15
L1
Current streak
W4
9
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Faber: 20 sig / 5 TD ·
Caceres: 20 sig / 0 TD
Urijah Faber
Alex Caceres
38
Sig strikes landed
49
85
Sig strikes attempted
109
53
Total strikes landed
67
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.7
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
253s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Urijah Faber
"The California Kid"
35-12
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
Blue corner
W4
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
22-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
9 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—