Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Vaughan Lee
Iuri Alcantara
11%
89%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
15-13-1
Career record
Δ 27 pp
36-10
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lee: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Alcantara: 5 sig / 0 TD
Vaughan Lee
Iuri Alcantara
28
Sig strikes landed
33
57
Sig strikes attempted
80
41
Total strikes landed
48
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
69s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Vaughan Lee
15-13-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
W1
Iuri Alcantara
"Marajo"
36-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—