Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Peter Sobotta
Pawel Pawlak
57%
43%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
27
Age
Δ 2y
25
L2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sobotta: 47 sig / 3 TD ·
Pawlak: 21 sig / 0 TD
Peter Sobotta
Pawel Pawlak
29
Sig strikes landed
38
75
Sig strikes attempted
73
54
Total strikes landed
58
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
274s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Peter Sobotta
17-8-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
Pawel Pawlak
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25