Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francis Carmont
CB Dollaway
69%
31%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
25-13
Career record
Δ 1 pp
18-9
L1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Carmont: 29 sig / 1 TD ·
Dollaway: 44 sig / 3 TD
Francis Carmont
CB Dollaway
28
Sig strikes landed
23
69
Sig strikes attempted
57
50
Total strikes landed
35
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
174s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Francis Carmont
"Limitless"
25-13
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
Blue corner
W1
CB Dollaway
"The Doberman"
18-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—