Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mark Munoz
Gegard Mousasi
6%
94%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
36
Age
Δ 7y
29
14-7
Career record
Δ 16 pp
42-7-2
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Munoz: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Mousasi: 18 sig / 0 TD
Mark Munoz
Gegard Mousasi
30
Sig strikes landed
42
77
Sig strikes attempted
85
45
Total strikes landed
61
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.6
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
201s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mark Munoz
"The Filipino Wrecking Machine"
14-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
Blue corner
L1
Gegard Mousasi
42-7-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—