Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Luke Barnatt
Sean Strickland
22%
78%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
26
Age
Δ 3y
23
14-4
Career record
Δ 4 pp
32-7
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Barnatt: 44 sig / 0 TD ·
Strickland: 48 sig / 1 TD
Luke Barnatt
Sean Strickland
25
Sig strikes landed
33
86
Sig strikes attempted
81
37
Total strikes landed
42
0.2
Takedowns landed
2.0
0.2
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
12s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Luke Barnatt
"The Bigslow"
14-4
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
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Blue corner
W1
Sean Strickland
32-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
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