Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tom Niinimaki
Niklas Backstrom
62%
38%
Why
32
Age
Δ 7y
25
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Niinimaki: 7 sig / 2 TD ·
Backstrom: 5 sig / 0 TD
Tom Niinimaki
Niklas Backstrom
20
Sig strikes landed
18
26
Sig strikes attempted
36
51
Total strikes landed
36
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.5
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
270s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tom Niinimaki
"Stoneface"
23-8-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
Blue corner
Niklas Backstrom
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25