Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Nick Hein
Drew Dober
42%
58%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hein: 50 sig / 2 TD ·
Dober: 49 sig / 0 TD
Nick Hein
Drew Dober
49
Sig strikes landed
52
115
Sig strikes attempted
134
62
Total strikes landed
80
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
86s
Control time
194s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nick Hein
"Sergeant"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner
L1
Drew Dober
29-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
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