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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Patrick Walsh vs Daniel Spohn

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Patrick Walsh
Daniel Spohn
80% 20%
Why
26
Age
Δ 4y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Walsh: 11 sig / 5 TD · Spohn: 24 sig / 0 TD
Patrick Walsh
Daniel Spohn
43
Sig strikes landed
41
96
Sig strikes attempted
102
65
Total strikes landed
58
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
107s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Patrick Walsh

"The Beast of the East"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
26
Blue corner

Daniel Spohn

"Dragon"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30