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Prelims2 Catch Weight

Sarah Moras vs Alexis Dufresne

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Sarah Moras
Alexis Dufresne
38% 62%
Why
26
Age
Δ 2y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Moras: 15 sig / 1 TD · Dufresne: 12 sig / 3 TD
Sarah Moras
Alexis Dufresne
36
Sig strikes landed
40
113
Sig strikes attempted
116
61
Total strikes landed
65
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
149s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Sarah Moras

"Cheesecake"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Alexis Dufresne

"Sneaky Zebra"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24