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Prelims1 Lightweight

Adriano Martins vs Juan Manuel Puig

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Adriano Martins
Juan Manuel Puig
73% 27%
Why
32
Age
Δ 6y
25
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Martins: 9 sig / 0 TD · Puig: 13 sig / 0 TD
Adriano Martins
Juan Manuel Puig
26
Sig strikes landed
20
49
Sig strikes attempted
37
44
Total strikes landed
37
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
167s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
34%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Adriano Martins

28-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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Blue corner

Juan Manuel Puig

"Fenix"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25