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Main Middleweight

Dhiego Lima vs Eddie Gordon

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Dhiego Lima
Eddie Gordon
73% 27%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
25
Age
Δ 6y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lima: 5 sig / 0 TD · Gordon: 22 sig / 0 TD
Dhiego Lima
Eddie Gordon
41
Sig strikes landed
33
83
Sig strikes attempted
72
58
Total strikes landed
42
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
147s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Dhiego Lima

0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner

Eddie Gordon

"Truck"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31