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Corey Anderson vs Matt Van Buren

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Corey Anderson
Matt Van Buren
91% 9%
Why
25
Age
Δ 3y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Anderson: 24 sig / 2 TD · Van Buren: 2 sig / 0 TD
Corey Anderson
Matt Van Buren
47
Sig strikes landed
37
103
Sig strikes attempted
99
67
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
160s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Corey Anderson

"Overtime"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner

Matt Van Buren

"Gutter"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Age
28