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Main Heavyweight

Derrick Lewis vs Guto Inocente

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Guto Inocente
82% 18%
Why
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lewis: 6 sig / 1 TD · Inocente: 6 sig / 0 TD
Derrick Lewis
Guto Inocente
25
Sig strikes landed
15
41
Sig strikes attempted
29
38
Total strikes landed
24
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
357s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Derrick Lewis

"The Black Beast"
30-13 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner

Guto Inocente

0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28