Main
Featherweight
Frankie Edgar vs BJ Penn
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Frankie Edgar
BJ Penn
82%
18%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
33
Age
Δ 3y
36
24-11-1
Career record
Δ 18 pp
16-15-2
W1
Current streak
L2
8
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Edgar: 90 sig / 3 TD ·
Penn: 13 sig / 0 TD
Frankie Edgar
BJ Penn
77
Sig strikes landed
60
174
Sig strikes attempted
142
102
Total strikes landed
72
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
161s
Control time
45s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
24-11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
L
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
Blue corner
L2
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16-15-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
6 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
D
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—