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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Jumabieke Tuerxun vs Leandro Issa

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jumabieke Tuerxun
Leandro Issa
76% 24%
Why
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
19-5-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
13-7
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Tuerxun: 33 sig / 0 TD · Issa: 44 sig / 2 TD
Jumabieke Tuerxun
Leandro Issa
31
Sig strikes landed
29
67
Sig strikes attempted
71
58
Total strikes landed
49
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
179s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
32%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jumabieke Tuerxun

"The Wild Wolf"
19-5-1
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway
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Blue corner
L1

Leandro Issa

"Brodinho"
13-7
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—