Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale
Prelims1 Lightweight

Jesse Ronson vs Kevin Lee

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Jesse Ronson
Kevin Lee
36% 64%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 7"
77"
28
Age
Δ 7y
22
21-13
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-9
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ronson: 48 sig / 1 TD · Lee: 49 sig / 4 TD
Jesse Ronson
Kevin Lee
44
Sig strikes landed
46
93
Sig strikes attempted
109
60
Total strikes landed
68
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
63s
Control time
245s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Jesse Ronson

"The Body Snatcher"
21-13 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner
L1

Kevin Lee

"The Motown Phenom"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—