Main
Flyweight
Justin Scoggins vs Dustin Ortiz
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Justin Scoggins
Dustin Ortiz
54%
46%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
22
Age
Δ 3y
26
12-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
20-8
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Scoggins: 24 sig / 5 TD ·
Ortiz: 39 sig / 2 TD
Justin Scoggins
Dustin Ortiz
32
Sig strikes landed
34
79
Sig strikes attempted
73
56
Total strikes landed
56
2.2
Takedowns landed
1.9
5.1
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
223s
Control time
192s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Justin Scoggins
12-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
Blue corner
W1
Dustin Ortiz
20-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—