Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ray Borg
Shane Howell
80%
20%
Why
21
Age
Δ 10y
31
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Borg: 2 sig / 1 TD ·
Howell: 0 sig / 0 TD
Ray Borg
Shane Howell
24
Sig strikes landed
32
53
Sig strikes attempted
53
53
Total strikes landed
51
3.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
349s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ray Borg
"The Tazmexican Devil"
13-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
Shane Howell
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31