Back to UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
Prelims2 Heavyweight

Aleksei Oleinik vs Anthony Hamilton

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens ·Frost Bank Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Aleksei Oleinik
Anthony Hamilton
98% 2%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
37
Age
Δ 3y
34

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Oleinik: 10 sig / 1 TD · Hamilton: 6 sig / 0 TD
Aleksei Oleinik
Anthony Hamilton
37
Sig strikes landed
32
72
Sig strikes attempted
70
61
Total strikes landed
47
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
110s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Aleksei Oleinik

"The Boa Constrictor"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
Blue corner

Anthony Hamilton

"Freight Train"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34