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Joe Ellenberger vs James Moontasri

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens ·Frost Bank Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Joe Ellenberger
James Moontasri
73% 27%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ellenberger: 22 sig / 3 TD · Moontasri: 35 sig / 0 TD
Joe Ellenberger
James Moontasri
37
Sig strikes landed
36
75
Sig strikes attempted
75
54
Total strikes landed
48
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
160s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Joe Ellenberger

"Excalibur"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

James Moontasri

"Moon Walker"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
26