Back to UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
Prelims1 Lightweight

Colton Smith vs Diego Ferreira

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens ·Frost Bank Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Colton Smith
Diego Ferreira
37% 63%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
L2
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Smith: 2 sig / 0 TD · Ferreira: 7 sig / 1 TD
Colton Smith
Diego Ferreira
24
Sig strikes landed
41
61
Sig strikes attempted
57
44
Total strikes landed
54
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
171s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Colton Smith

7-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
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L UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
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W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
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Blue corner

Diego Ferreira

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29