Main
Middleweight
Cezar Ferreira vs Andrew Craig
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
·Frost Bank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cezar Ferreira
Andrew Craig
58%
42%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
13-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
9-5
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ferreira: 20 sig / 2 TD ·
Craig: 16 sig / 0 TD
Cezar Ferreira
Andrew Craig
24
Sig strikes landed
24
62
Sig strikes attempted
50
40
Total strikes landed
35
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
171s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cezar Ferreira
"Mutante"
13-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Andrew Craig
"Highlight"
9-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—