Main
Welterweight
Kelvin Gastelum vs Nicholas Musoke
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
·Frost Bank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kelvin Gastelum
Nicholas Musoke
67%
33%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
23
Age
Δ 6y
28
22-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
14-5
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gastelum: 67 sig / 0 TD ·
Musoke: 36 sig / 2 TD
Kelvin Gastelum
Nicholas Musoke
31
Sig strikes landed
27
81
Sig strikes attempted
67
49
Total strikes landed
47
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
104s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Kelvin Gastelum
22-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
Blue corner
W2
Nicholas Musoke
"Nico"
14-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—