Back to UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
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Cub Swanson vs Jeremy Stephens

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Jeremy Stephens
80% 20%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
32-14
Career record
Δ 13 pp
30-23
W5
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Swanson: 87 sig / 0 TD · Stephens: 65 sig / 2 TD
Cub Swanson
Jeremy Stephens
41
Sig strikes landed
45
96
Sig strikes attempted
103
53
Total strikes landed
55
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
54s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W5

Cub Swanson

32-14
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
W UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
W UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
W UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
W UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Blue corner
W3

Jeremy Stephens

"Lil' Heathen"
30-23 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
W UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
W UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
L UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
L UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…