Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Valerie Letourneau vs Elizabeth Phillips
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
·Rogers Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Valerie Letourneau
Elizabeth Phillips
58%
42%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
65"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Letourneau: 104 sig / 0 TD ·
Phillips: 67 sig / 0 TD
Valerie Letourneau
Elizabeth Phillips
37
Sig strikes landed
35
82
Sig strikes attempted
77
64
Total strikes landed
61
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
161s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Valerie Letourneau
"Trouble"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Elizabeth Phillips
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28