Prelims1
Welterweight
Daniel Sarafian vs Kiichi Kunimoto
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
·Rogers Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Daniel Sarafian
Kiichi Kunimoto
48%
52%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
10-7
Career record
Δ 9 pp
19-7-2
L1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Sarafian: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Kunimoto: 5 sig / 1 TD
Daniel Sarafian
Kiichi Kunimoto
17
Sig strikes landed
31
33
Sig strikes attempted
47
30
Total strikes landed
47
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
114s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Daniel Sarafian
10-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
Blue corner
W1
Kiichi Kunimoto
"Strasser"
19-7-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—