Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Bader
Rafael Cavalcante
86%
14%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
24-5
Career record
Δ 18 pp
13-7
W1
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bader: 53 sig / 7 TD ·
Cavalcante: 10 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Bader
Rafael Cavalcante
31
Sig strikes landed
19
58
Sig strikes attempted
39
54
Total strikes landed
29
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.2
6.0
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
218s
Control time
15s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
24-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
W1
Rafael Cavalcante
"Feijao"
13-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—