Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Brendan Schaub
63%
37%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
35
Age
Δ 4y
31
—
Current streak
W2
0
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Arlovski: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Schaub: 30 sig / 1 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Brendan Schaub
31
Sig strikes landed
28
65
Sig strikes attempted
63
49
Total strikes landed
45
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
98s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner
W2
Brendan Schaub
"Big Brown"
11-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
L
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—