Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rory MacDonald
Tyron Woodley
73%
27%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
25
Age
Δ 7y
32
20-4
Career record
Δ 12 pp
20-7-1
W1
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
MacDonald: 49 sig / 1 TD ·
Woodley: 26 sig / 0 TD
Rory MacDonald
Tyron Woodley
44
Sig strikes landed
26
79
Sig strikes attempted
61
64
Total strikes landed
35
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
150s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
20-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W2
Tyron Woodley
"The Chosen One"
20-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—