🏆 Title fight
Main
Flyweight
Demetrious Johnson vs Ali Bagautinov
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
·Rogers Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Demetrious Johnson
Ali Bagautinov
89%
11%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
28-3-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
16-6
W5
Current streak
W3
9
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Johnson: 133 sig / 0 TD ·
Bagautinov: 36 sig / 2 TD
Demetrious Johnson
Ali Bagautinov
70
Sig strikes landed
37
139
Sig strikes attempted
119
112
Total strikes landed
61
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
5.4
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
183s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Demetrious Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
28-3-1
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
Blue corner
W3
Ali Bagautinov
"Puncher"
16-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—