Main
Bantamweight
Erik Perez vs Bryan Caraway
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov
·Tingley Coliseum
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Erik Perez
Bryan Caraway
63%
37%
Why
68"
Reach
68"
24
Age
Δ 5y
30
18-6
Career record
Δ 4 pp
22-9
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Perez: 10 sig / 1 TD ·
Caraway: 7 sig / 2 TD
Erik Perez
Bryan Caraway
36
Sig strikes landed
31
83
Sig strikes attempted
76
47
Total strikes landed
57
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
5.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
104s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Erik Perez
"Goyito"
18-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner
W1
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
22-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—