Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
John Dodson
John Moraga
57%
43%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
23-12
Career record
Δ 8 pp
20-7
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Dodson: 27 sig / 1 TD ·
Moraga: 8 sig / 0 TD
John Dodson
John Moraga
43
Sig strikes landed
46
105
Sig strikes attempted
110
55
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
87s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Dodson
"The Magician"
23-12
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
W1
John Moraga
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—