Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Tim Means
65%
35%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
32-15
Career record
Δ 5 pp
33-18-1
W1
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Magny: 29 sig / 4 TD ·
Means: 30 sig / 3 TD
Neil Magny
Tim Means
49
Sig strikes landed
49
127
Sig strikes attempted
119
62
Total strikes landed
71
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
95s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
Blue corner
L2
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—