Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Erik Koch
Daron Cruickshank
70%
30%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
26
Age
Δ 3y
29
17-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
19-10
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Koch: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Cruickshank: 24 sig / 0 TD
Erik Koch
Daron Cruickshank
34
Sig strikes landed
33
81
Sig strikes attempted
78
42
Total strikes landed
45
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
78s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
17-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W1
Daron Cruickshank
"Detroit Superstar"
19-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
L
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—