Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Soa Palelei
Ruan Potts
83%
17%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 6"
75"
37
Age
Δ 1y
36
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Palelei: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Potts: 0 sig / 0 TD
Soa Palelei
Ruan Potts
26
Sig strikes landed
10
45
Sig strikes attempted
20
46
Total strikes landed
22
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.0
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
261s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Soa Palelei
"The Hulk"
23-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
Blue corner
Ruan Potts
"Fangzz"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36