Main
Middleweight
Constantinos Philippou vs Lorenz Larkin
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
·U.S. Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Constantinos Philippou
Lorenz Larkin
42%
58%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
34
Age
Δ 7y
28
13-6
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-7
L2
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Philippou: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Larkin: 16 sig / 0 TD
Constantinos Philippou
Lorenz Larkin
36
Sig strikes landed
41
95
Sig strikes attempted
95
51
Total strikes landed
51
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
94s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Constantinos Philippou
13-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
L1
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
18-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—