Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Matt Brown
Erick Silva
49%
51%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
27-19
Career record
Δ 10 pp
20-9
W6
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Brown: 118 sig / 5 TD ·
Silva: 25 sig / 0 TD
Matt Brown
Erick Silva
28
Sig strikes landed
20
55
Sig strikes attempted
48
45
Total strikes landed
29
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
131s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
37%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
27-19
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W1
Erick Silva
20-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
L
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—