Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Chris Cariaso
Louis Smolka
40%
60%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
33
Age
Δ 10y
23
18-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-9
W2
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Cariaso: 64 sig / 2 TD ·
Smolka: 42 sig / 1 TD
Chris Cariaso
Louis Smolka
62
Sig strikes landed
72
133
Sig strikes attempted
195
81
Total strikes landed
98
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
119s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
83%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
18-8
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
Blue corner
W1
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—