Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ed Herman
Rafael Natal
49%
51%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
34
Age
Δ 2y
31
27-17
Career record
Δ 4 pp
21-10-1
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Herman: 51 sig / 1 TD ·
Natal: 35 sig / 1 TD
Ed Herman
Rafael Natal
35
Sig strikes landed
38
76
Sig strikes attempted
77
46
Total strikes landed
53
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
57s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
27-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
L1
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
21-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—