Prelims1
Flyweight
Kyoji Horiguchi vs Darrell Montague
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
·U.S. Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kyoji Horiguchi
Darrell Montague
96%
4%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
24
Age
Δ 3y
26
37-5
Career record
Δ 20 pp
13-6
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Horiguchi: 65 sig / 2 TD ·
Montague: 26 sig / 1 TD
Kyoji Horiguchi
Darrell Montague
39
Sig strikes landed
10
76
Sig strikes attempted
42
54
Total strikes landed
18
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
227s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kyoji Horiguchi
"Karate Kid"
37-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
Blue corner
L1
Darrell Montague
"Mongoose"
13-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—