Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Yan Cabral
Zak Cummings
43%
57%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
14-3
Career record
Δ 4 pp
26-7
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cabral: 23 sig / 1 TD ·
Cummings: 28 sig / 3 TD
Yan Cabral
Zak Cummings
7
Sig strikes landed
10
24
Sig strikes attempted
13
32
Total strikes landed
25
2.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.70
Knockdowns
0.20
109s
Control time
185s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
53%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Yan Cabral
14-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
Blue corner
W1
Zak Cummings
26-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—