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Prelims2 Heavyweight

Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Richardson Moreira

UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Richardson Moreira
76% 24%
Why
29
Age
Δ 1y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rogerio de Lima: 7 sig / 0 TD · Moreira: 3 sig / 0 TD
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Richardson Moreira
37
Sig strikes landed
29
72
Sig strikes attempted
65
56
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
146s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

"Pezao"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

Richardson Moreira

"Rick Monstro"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30