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Ricardo Abreu vs Wagner Silva

UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Ricardo Abreu
Wagner Silva
53% 47%
Why
30
Age
Δ 3y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Abreu: 33 sig / 0 TD · Silva: 17 sig / 0 TD
Ricardo Abreu
Wagner Silva
33
Sig strikes landed
34
71
Sig strikes attempted
73
45
Total strikes landed
48
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
143s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ricardo Abreu

"Demente"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner

Wagner Silva

"Wagnao"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27