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Prelims1 Featherweight

Edimilson Souza vs Mark Eddiva

UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Edimilson Souza
Mark Eddiva
63% 37%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
68"
30
Age
Δ 1y
28
16-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
7-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Souza: 79 sig / 0 TD · Eddiva: 54 sig / 0 TD
Edimilson Souza
Mark Eddiva
46
Sig strikes landed
35
95
Sig strikes attempted
93
70
Total strikes landed
52
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.2
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
108s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Edimilson Souza

"Kevin"
16-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
Blue corner
W1

Mark Eddiva

7-3
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway
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