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Rodrigo Damm vs Rashid Magomedov

UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Rodrigo Damm
Rashid Magomedov
20% 80%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
34
Age
Δ 5y
30
14-9
Career record
Δ 30 pp
21-2
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Damm: 37 sig / 0 TD · Magomedov: 63 sig / 0 TD
Rodrigo Damm
Rashid Magomedov
36
Sig strikes landed
55
102
Sig strikes attempted
127
45
Total strikes landed
64
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
84s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Rodrigo Damm

14-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
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W UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
L UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
W1

Rashid Magomedov

"Highlander"
21-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
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