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Elias Silverio vs Ernest Chavez

UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Elias Silverio
Ernest Chavez
73% 27%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
14-3
Career record
Δ 2 pp
11-2
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Silverio: 65 sig / 1 TD · Chavez: 54 sig / 0 TD
Elias Silverio
Ernest Chavez
39
Sig strikes landed
29
81
Sig strikes attempted
54
59
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.9
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
146s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
43%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Elias Silverio

"Xuxu"
14-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
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W UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
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Blue corner
W1

Ernest Chavez

"EJ"
11-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
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