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Prelims1 Welterweight

Paulo Thiago vs Gasan Umalatov

UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Paulo Thiago
Gasan Umalatov
46% 54%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
33
Age
Δ 2y
32
18-10
Career record
Δ 7 pp
17-5-2
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thiago: 42 sig / 1 TD · Umalatov: 24 sig / 1 TD
Paulo Thiago
Gasan Umalatov
31
Sig strikes landed
31
71
Sig strikes attempted
63
49
Total strikes landed
48
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
107s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Paulo Thiago

18-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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W UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
L UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
W UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
Blue corner
L1

Gasan Umalatov

"Cobra"
17-5-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
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