Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alan Omer
Jim Alers
70%
30%
Why
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Omer: 58 sig / 1 TD ·
Alers: 36 sig / 2 TD
Alan Omer
Jim Alers
41
Sig strikes landed
33
82
Sig strikes attempted
73
58
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
146s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Alan Omer
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Jim Alers
"The Beast"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28